Gioia, Eleonora & Marincioni, Fausto & Ferretti, Maurizio. (2021).
Modeling landslide hazard in the Esino River Valley (central Italy) (pdf)
Monographic volume of the Open Access and peer-reviewed series "Geographies of the Anthropocene"
Modeling landslide hazard is among the forecast activities of the Civil Protection system. Usually, scientific literature that aims to determine rainfall thresholds for the possible occurrence of landslides, tends to rely on two main separate approaches: empirical and physical models. This research contributes to such debate by adopting both the approaches, after integrating some of the each other features. This novel methodology has been applied to the landslides affecting the eastward Esino River Valley, located in the Marche region (central Italy). Post-orogenic quaternary sediments, with approximatively similar hydrogeological properties and prone to rainfallinduced shallow landslides, characterize this 550 km2 wide area. This volume is divided in four sections focusing on: i) the validation of the correlation between historical landslides and rainfall series; ii) the application of empirical models, namely the cumulative event – duration, the maximum intensity – duration, the mean intensity – duration, and the Bayesian methods; iii) the application of the US Geological Survey's Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-stability (TRIGRS) physical model; iv) the testing of all the above models, during a rainfall event that affected the study area on 2-4 May 2014 and triggered several landslides. Results of this research are proposed as possible decision support tools for landslide warning.
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